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You are here : Accueil Five to ten years of austerity
Five to ten years of austerity
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06/29/10 12:44am - Yves de Kerdrel - ydekerdrel@wansquare.com

This morning the Governor of the Bank of France has argued for "five to ten years of austerity" in order not to destroy growth.


Christian Noyer, the Governor of the Bank of France, rarely speaks, which is one more reason to listen to what he has to say. This morning, for once, as a guest on Europe 1, he did not try to hide the facts and clearly stated that five to ten years of austerity would be required in order to correct the deficits accumulated by the State, which are now holding back growth.

So here, finally, is the real argument: how do we handle austerity without destroying returning growth, however weak it might be? How does one conduct a policy of austerity without breaking the confidence of entrepreneurs? How does one reduce deficits and the downward spiral of debt without falling into economy's worst nightmare: deflation?

This is exactly what should be discussed tomorrow at the Council of Ministers, when François Baroin and François Fillon will bring up the amended draft finance act. Above all, it will be brought up at the policy debate on the public finances that will take place at the National Assembly on 6 July of this year.

The British example is very interesting in this respect, because the plan that David Cameron has presented is very severe as regards the reduction of public expenditure, but at the same time provides for a reduction in corporation tax.
 
Why? Quite simply because that will create more favourable conditions for returns on investment for the private sector, and thus for possible recruitment.

In France it is, unfortunately, difficult to imagine the government putting in place a policy of freezing public expenditure and of lowering corporation tax at the same time. But if we merely followed the recommendations of the Champsaur-Cotis report that few experts, including those in government, have taken the trouble to read, we would not have trouble finding the keys to a policy of austerity that would not destroy growth.

These two economists advocate an effort with regard to public expenditure of 0.7% of GDP each year for ten years, in addition to what has already been announced. This is a modest target, but at the same time a credible one which is acceptable to the credit-rating agencies. It is a target that could be supported by any government, and a target that is acceptable to public opinion.
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